§ Expectiles
Mean is a minimiser of L2 norm: it minimizes the loss of penalizing your
'prediction' of (many instances of) a random quantity. You can assume that the
instances will be revealed after you have made the prediction.
If your prediction is over/larger by e you will be penalized by e2.
If your prediction is lower by e
then also the penalty is e2. This makes mean symmetric. It punishes
overestimates the same way as underestimates.
Now, if you were to be punished by absolute value ∣e∣ as opposed to e2 then median would be your best
prediction.
Lets denote the error by e+ if the error is an over-estimate and
e− if its under. Both e++ and e− are non-negative. Now if the penalties were to
be e++ae+− that would have led to the different quantiles depending on
the values of a>0. Note a=1 introduces the asymmetry.
If you were to do introduce a similar asymmetric treatment of e+2 and
e−2 that would have given rise to expectiles.